CAALE™

Learn · beginner path

Read the COT report in seven steps.

No experience needed. Each step takes a minute. Underlined words open in the glossary below.

  1. 01

    What the COT report is

    The Commitments of Traders report is published every week by the CFTC, the US futures regulator. It shows how open futures positions are split between different types of trader.

    It tells you who holds what. It does not tell you where price will go.

  2. 02

    When it comes out

    Positions are recorded on Tuesday. The CFTC normally publishes them on Friday afternoon, US time. See report date vs release date.

    So the data is always a few days old when you read it. That makes it delayed context, not a live feed.

  3. 03

    Long, short and open interest

    Long gains if price rises. Short gains if price falls. Every futures contract has one buyer and one seller.

    Open interest is the total number of contracts still open. It shows how much positioning exists, not which way it leans.

  4. 04

    Trader groups

    The report splits positions into groups. CAALE's brief focuses on two:

    • Commercials: large reportable traders, usually businesses and institutions managing risk.
    • Smaller traders (non-reportable): positions below the reporting threshold. This can include retail traders, but it is not only retail.
  5. 05

    Net position

    A group's net position is its longs minus its shorts. More longs means net long. More shorts means net short.

    Comparing it with open interest gives net as % of open interest, which shows how big the lean is against the whole market.

  6. 06

    Percentile vs history

    A historical percentile compares a group's positioning today with its own 10-year history. 0 is the low end of that history, 100 is the high end.

    It is not a probability of a price move.

    Explanation only · not current market data

    0 low end100 high end

    A reading of 50 means positioning is in the middle of its own history.

07

Read the latest standout, step by step

Latest completed report · positions as of Tuesday 3 November 2026 · released Friday 6 November 2026

caale / weekly brief / standout
Latest completed report
Positions as of Tue 3 Nov 2026Released Fri 6 Nov 2026

Standout market

Nasdaq-100 NQ

Bearish positioning contrast

Commercials · net short8.62 pctl
Smaller traders (non-reportable) · net long98.47 pctl

Percentile: 0 is the low end of its own history, 100 the high end.

  • CommercialsNet short · held 12 weeks
  • Smaller traders (non-reportable)Net long · held 13 weeks
Confidence
High
Quality
8.9/10

15 markets checked · 1 standout · 14 other markets checked: no standout this week

Context only, never a trigger.How to read this

  1. aDates first. These positions are from Tuesday 3 November 2026, published Friday 6 November 2026. Already a few days old.
  2. bMarket. Nasdaq-100 (NQ) was the only standout of 15 markets checked. The other 14 did not stand out this week.
  3. cPercentile bars. Commercials sit at 8.62, near the low end of their own 10-year history. Smaller traders sit at 98.47, near the high end.
  4. dStance and size. Commercials are net short, -18.79% of open interest. Smaller traders are net long, +5.97% of open interest.
  5. eDuration. Commercials have been net short for 12 weeks, smaller traders net long for 13 weeks (stance persisted).
  6. fThe read. Put together, CAALE labels this a bearish positioning contrast with high confidence and a quality score of 8.9/10.
  7. gWhat it is not. Not a prediction, price target or trade instruction. Context only, never a trigger.

Historical example · positions as of Tuesday 27 October 2026, released Friday 30 October 2026: Nasdaq-100 (NQ) commercials 7.1, smaller traders 92.9. Not the latest report.

What CAALE tells you

  • Which markets have unusual positioning against their own history
  • Which trader groups lean which way, and by how much
  • How long a stance has lasted
  • All in plain English, once a week

What CAALE does not tell you

  • When or whether price will move
  • What to buy or sell, or price targets
  • Anything live: COT is delayed context
  • What fits your own risk. Your decisions stay yours.
caale / learn / beginner checklist
  • Check the position date and release date
  • Find which market and which trader groups
  • Read the stance: net long or net short
  • Check size against open interest
  • Read the percentile: 0 low end, 100 high end of its own history
  • Note how many weeks the stance has lasted
  • Remember: context only, never a trigger

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Reference

COT glossary.

Plain-English meanings for every word used in the brief.

caale / learn / glossary
24 terms

Free weekly brief

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