WEEKLY BRIEFING
CAALE Weekly Briefing
Every tracked market, from the big picture down to the standout
Week of 3 November 2026 · Edition 1
Context only, never a trigger. COT positioning provides background for market analysis, not an instruction to enter a trade.
01 / THIS WEEK IN BRIEF
This week in brief
This week has one standout: Nasdaq-100 (NQ), a bearish positioning contrast between commercials and smaller traders. The other 14 markets still give useful positioning context, but none stood out. The main ones to watch are EUR and CL, where commercials sit high against their history, JPY, where commercials sit low, and gold (GC), where a two-sided bearish contrast is developing.
| Field | Status |
|---|---|
| Report coverage | CFTC Legacy futures-and-options combined |
| Positions as of | Tuesday 3 November 2026 |
| CFTC release | Friday 6 November 2026 |
| Markets checked | 15 · 1 standout |
| Alert count | Not supplied |
02 / HOW TO READ THIS BRIEF
How to read this brief
• Commercials means Legacy Commercial traders only.
• Smaller traders means Nonreportable traders only. It is shorthand, not all retail activity.
• A percentile shows where a group's net position, as a share of open interest, sits against its own history. 0 is the lowest it has been, 100 the highest.
• A high commercial percentile does not by itself mean commercials are net long. It means their position is high compared with their own past.
• This is one week's snapshot. "Close to an extreme" describes where a market sits now, not that it moved there this week.
03 / THE STANDOUT: NASDAQ-100 (NQ)
The standout: Nasdaq-100 (NQ)
| Measure | This week |
|---|---|
| Commercial percentile | 8.62 |
| Smaller traders percentile | 98.47 |
| Commercial net, share of open interest | -18.79% |
| Smaller traders net, share of open interest | +5.97% |
| Commercial stance | Net short, held 12 weeks |
| Smaller traders stance | Net long, held 13 weeks |
| Published read | Bearish positioning contrast |
| Confidence | High |
| Quality | 8.9/10 |
What to watch
Whether both opposing extremes hold, deepen or unwind in the next report, and whether commercial net short and smaller trader net long exposure grow or shrink.
This shows the positioning picture. It does not give a price entry, a reversal date or an expected move.
04 / EQUITY INDICES: THE BEARISH CONTRAST IS CONCENTRATED IN NQ
Equity indices: the bearish contrast is concentrated in NQ
| Market | Commercial pct | Smaller traders pct | Positioning lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 (NQ) | 8.62 | 98.47 | Standout bearish contrast |
| S&P 500 (ES) | 45.98 | 88.12 | Weak bearish contrast, led by smaller traders |
| Dow (YM) | 39.08 | 81.99 | Mild bearish contrast, not extreme |
What to watch
Nasdaq-100 (NQ)
BearishCommercials
8.62
Smaller traders
98.47
Whether both opposing extremes hold, deepen or unwind in the next report, and whether commercial net short and smaller trader net long exposure grow or shrink.
S&P 500 (ES)
BearishCommercials
45.98
Smaller traders
88.12
Smaller traders sit close to their high extreme, but commercials are mid-range.
Dow (YM)
BearishCommercials
39.08
Smaller traders
81.99
Whether smaller traders move higher and commercials move clearly lower.
All three show commercials lower than smaller traders, but the strength differs a lot. NQ has the two-sided extreme. ES mainly shows smaller traders high against their history, and YM shows a milder contrast.
So NQ has the strongest bearish positioning picture. ES and YM agree in direction but are weaker, not equal, readings.
05 / TREASURIES: MIXED, NOT ONE DIRECTION
Treasuries: mixed, not one direction
| Market | Commercial pct | Smaller traders pct | Positioning lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treasury bond (ZB) | 17.82 | 70.31 | Bearish-leaning contrast, not a standout |
| 2-year Treasury (ZT) | 64.18 | 39.46 | Mild bullish-leaning contrast |
| 10Y Treasury note (10Y) | 82.38 | 57.28 | Commercials high, bullish picture incomplete |
What to watch
Treasury bond (ZB)
BearishCommercials
17.82
Smaller traders
70.31
Commercials are fairly close to their low extreme; smaller traders are still well short of their high one.
2-year Treasury (ZT)
BullishCommercials
64.18
Smaller traders
39.46
Neither group is near an extreme. Commercials higher and smaller traders lower would strengthen it.
10Y Treasury note (10Y)
BullishCommercials
82.38
Smaller traders
57.28
Commercials are close to their high extreme, but smaller traders are mid-range rather than low.
There is no single Treasury lean. ZB has a bearish-style contrast, ZT a modest bullish-style one, and 10Y has commercials fairly high without smaller traders low. None stood out.
These are futures positioning observations, not yield forecasts.
06 / COMMODITIES: GOLD IS THE CLEAREST TWO-SIDED WATCH, OIL IS ONE-SIDED
Commodities: gold is the clearest two-sided watch, oil is one-sided
| Market | Commercial pct | Smaller traders pct | Positioning lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GC) | 19.92 | 80.08 | Bearish-leaning, two-sided, near the extremes |
| Silver (SI) | 62.07 | 75.67 | Mixed, no clean contrast |
| WTI crude oil (physical) (CL) | 93.30 | 57.09 | Commercials at a high extreme, smaller traders not confirming |
What to watch
Gold (GC)
BearishCommercials
19.92
Smaller traders
80.08
Both groups sit a similar distance from a bearish extreme. Watch whether both reach it in later reports.
Silver (SI)
No read suppliedCommercials
62.07
Smaller traders
75.67
Whether the two groups begin to separate towards opposite extremes.
WTI crude oil (physical) (CL)
BullishCommercials
93.30
Smaller traders
57.09
Whether commercials stay high while smaller traders move clearly lower.
Gold: commercials are fairly low and smaller traders fairly high, both closer to opposite extremes than in silver. Neither has reached one yet, and this snapshot does not show whether either moved that way this week.
Silver does not repeat gold's picture. Commercials are above the middle, so calling it a strong bearish setup would overstate the evidence.
WTI: commercials are at a high extreme, but smaller traders sit near the middle. That is a commercial-side bullish watch, not a standout.
07 / CURRENCIES: SELECTIVE COMMERCIAL EXTREMES, NO STANDOUT
Currencies: selective commercial extremes, no standout
| Market | Commercial pct | Smaller traders pct | Positioning lean |
|---|---|---|---|
| British pound (GBP) | 80.46 | 33.91 | Bullish-leaning contrast, not extreme |
| Euro (EUR) | 97.70 | 26.63 | Commercials at a strong high extreme |
| Japanese yen (JPY) | 8.05 | 66.48 | Commercials at a low extreme |
| Canadian dollar (6C) | 49.23 | 29.89 | Weak bullish-side contrast, low conviction |
| Australian dollar (6A) | 68.77 | 75.10 | Mixed, no clean opposing lean |
| US Dollar Index (DX) | 54.21 | 49.23 | No meaningful contrast |
What to watch
British pound (GBP)
BullishCommercials
80.46
Smaller traders
33.91
Commercials fairly close to a high extreme; smaller traders still well above a low one.
Euro (EUR)
BullishCommercials
97.70
Smaller traders
26.63
Commercials are already extreme; smaller traders would need to sit much lower to complete the picture.
Japanese yen (JPY)
BearishCommercials
8.05
Smaller traders
66.48
Commercials are already extreme; smaller traders would need to sit much higher to complete the picture.
Canadian dollar (6C)
BullishCommercials
49.23
Smaller traders
29.89
Smaller traders are fairly low, but commercials are mid-range.
Australian dollar (6A)
No read suppliedCommercials
68.77
Smaller traders
75.10
Both groups sit above the middle rather than at opposite extremes.
US Dollar Index (DX)
No read suppliedCommercials
54.21
Smaller traders
49.23
Both groups sit near the middle of their history.
EUR has the highest commercial reading of all 15 markets, but smaller traders are not low enough to complete the bullish picture.
JPY already has the commercial side of a bearish picture, but not the smaller trader side.
GBP has a bullish-style contrast, but neither side is at an extreme. DX sits near the middle for both groups, so it does not confirm a broad dollar theme. The currency read is selective and mixed.
08 / WATCHLIST: WHAT IS CLOSEST
Watchlist: what is closest
Where each market sits now. This does not say a market is moving towards standing out, or that it will.
| Watch | Markets | This week |
|---|---|---|
| Standout this week | NQ | Commercial 8.62, smaller traders 98.47, opposite net stances |
| Both sides fairly near a bearish extreme | GC | Commercial 19.92, smaller traders 80.08 |
| Commercials at a high extreme | EUR, CL | EUR 97.70 / 26.63; CL 93.30 / 57.09 |
| Commercials at a low extreme | JPY | Commercial 8.05, smaller traders 66.48 |
| Smaller traders near a high extreme | ES | Smaller traders 88.12, commercial 45.98 |
| Commercials near a low extreme | ZB | Commercial 17.82, smaller traders 70.31 |
| Commercials near a high extreme | 10Y | Commercial 82.38, smaller traders 57.28 |
| Developing bullish-style contrast | GBP | Commercial 80.46, smaller traders 33.91 |
09 / THE BIG PICTURE
The big picture
What the evidence supports
• Equities: a standout bearish contrast in NQ, with weaker bearish-style contrasts in ES and YM.
• Treasuries: mixed pictures across the three contracts.
• Commodities: a bearish-style contrast in gold that has not stood out, mixed silver positioning, and a one-sided commercial high in WTI.
• Currencies: commercials high in EUR and low in JPY, but neither has the matching smaller trader side. GBP has a weaker bullish-style contrast; DX sits near the middle.
What it does not support
• A single cross asset risk-on or risk-off picture.
• Any market being neutral. Several markets that did not stand out still show useful contrasts or one-sided extremes.
10 / DATA LIMITS
Data limits
This covers all 15 markets CAALE tracks, from CFTC Legacy futures-and-options combined data only.
Net exposure figures were supplied for NQ only. For the other markets, the leans describe where each group sits against its own history, not confirmed net long or net short positions.
No previous-week figures, price context or key levels were supplied, so this edition makes no week-on-week or price claims. The next edition will compare the same measures with this one.
Weekly comparison unavailable. A comparable previous report was not available for this edition, so changes since the last report are omitted rather than estimated. Price context unavailable for this edition. Levels to watch unavailable for this edition.
This briefing is designed to help organise your preparation. It does not replace your own independent analysis or setup.